The topic of the “future of work” has been gaining momentum among civil society and governments in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, when it comes to data and knowledge, we are largely navigating in the dark: we still know very little about the trends impacting labor markets in the region, who benefits and who is left behind by these changes, and how we can ensure a future with more and better jobs—especially for those at a disadvantage. 

To start addressing these knowledge gaps, a few months ago, we launched a call for research projects on themes related to the future of work. This call, funded by Canada’s IDRC, is part of the global FutureWORKS Collective initiative, and is being replicated by our partner research centers in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. 

After receiving outstanding proposals from nearly 100 teams across the region, we took on the challenging task of evaluating them with the support of a team of specialists. As a result, five research projects were selected, covering diverse topics such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), the platform economy, climate change, the green transition, and the care economy. We believe that the future of work in Latin America and the Caribbean will largely hinge on our ability to generate quality jobs for all in a more technological, greener, and more human future. 

A more technological future: Generative Artificial Intelligence and employment 

Discussions on the future of work are often framed around the opportunities and risks that AI brings to labor markets. Much has been written on the subject, not just from academia but also in literature and fiction. Yet, it often feels like we are a step behind: by the time we begin to understand technological innovations, they have already evolved, making them harder to shape. On the other hand, when they first appear are still malleable, we can only grasp their potential. This is precisely where we stand with Generative AI today—these are very recent innovations, and we are only beginning to outline their potential impact on labor markets. 

The first selected project tackles this issue head-on. A consortium comprised by the Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS) at the National University of La Plata, along with the Torcuato Di Tella University, the University of Maryland, and the University of Nottingham, will conduct research to better understand the effects of Generative AI—specifically large language models (LLMs)—on labor markets. The research project aims to determine whether, as many suspect, these models polarize labor markets or, conversely, help reduce skill gaps between low- and high-skilled workers. 

The research project aims to clarify whether these models, as many suspect, contribute to greater labor market polarization, or if, on the contrary, they help bridge the skill gap between low- and high-skilled workers. 

A greener future: climate change and the green transition 

The future is not just about technology—it must also prioritize sustainability. The shift toward a green economy is complex, requiring a complete rethinking of how we work and producegoods and services. Just like with new technologies, the region faces the challenge of performing better than it has in the past. While we haven’t been particularly successful in fostering this type of structural transformation before, a new window of opportunity is opening now. 

In this context, the second project enters the stage: INESAD, based in Bolivia, will lead a study focused on identifying the factors influencing the adoption of innovative and sustainable agricultural technologies by quinoa producers in Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador. The goal is to understand why most producers in the Andean region have not adopted a specific set of technologies, despite their potential to increase agricultural income and contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation. 

The study will compare the situation across the three countries and conduct an experiment in Bolivia to analyze the determinants behind the adoption of these technologies, with a specific focus on gender differences. 

A more human future: Employment in the care economy 

Future-oriented jobs are also more human. Demographic transitions, such as aging populations and declining birth rates, combined with increased female participation in the labor market and changes in family structures, are driving the demand for care services across the region. This involves not only childcare but increasingly care for the elderly. While these jobs are resilient, the care sector faces significant challenges in terms of quality: many of these roles are informal, low-paid, and linked with precarious working conditions. Moreover, they are overwhelmingly carried out by women. 

The third selected project, carried out by ATRAHDOM, SINTRAHo, and SINTDCES, will conduct an in-depth analysis of the paid and unpaid care sector in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. The study will survey 6,000 care workers in Central America to gain insights into their professional profiles, working conditions, and specific needs. The findings will be crucial for designing strategies that enhance the professional status and working conditions of care sector workers. 

Future-oriented yes, but what about quality? The case of platform-mediated work 

Platform-mediated jobs are already a significant part of the region’s reality. Whether it’s the hundreds of people delivering products on their motorcycles accross Latin American cities, or those working from home coding and tagging content for tech companies worldwide, these jobs are here to stay. However, we know little about critical aspects such as their cognitive content, quality, or how they compare to their offline counterparts. 

The fourth project addresses these questions. A team of researchers from Adolfo Ibáñez University, Buenos Aires University, Toronto University, Rosario University, the Observatory of Platforms-Perú, the Catholic University of Uruguay and the Association of Technology, Educatión, Development, Research and Comunication will deepen our understanding of platform work in South America, covering Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. 

Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, it will analyze labor dynamics, regulatory frameworks, and social perceptions around platform work. The study will involve interviews with workers and executives and the analysis of statistical and legal data, providing insights into how platform work is perceived and structured. Additionally, they will develop measurement methods adapted to each national context, creating specific questionnaires to capture the nuances of platform work in different countries. 

Policy responses: Addressing the skill mismatch 

How can we ensure that more quality jobs, accessible to all, are created in future-oriented sectors? The answer spans several lines of action, but perhaps the most crucial one involves the reskilling of workers. In a context where it is essential to better understand the key skills for the 21st century, the fifth project, led by the Center for Economic Research (CINVE), focuses precisely on this. Its goal is to investigate the skills mismatch between today’s most prevalent occupations and future-oriented occupations—such as green jobs, jobs in science and technology, and platform and care work. Through innovative data sources, the project will identify, quantify, and characterize these types of jobs in South America, focusing on both the characteristics of workers (such as gender, education level, salary profile) and the skills that employers are seeking to fill these positions. Additionally, they will create a "skills-based occupation map" to visualize the proximity between different occupations based on shared skills, knowledge, and experience. 

Looking ahead 

At Sur Futuro, we believe in a future with decent, productive, inclusive, and resilient jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean. We know there is much work to do, and that this challenge involves broad sectors of society, including governments, the private sector, labor unions, academia, civil society, and workers themselves. From our standpoint, we trust that the data and knowledge generated in this first research cycle will provide valuable insights to help advance toward this shared goal.